According to Triple-I and Milliman actuaries, which are risk-management, technology and benefits firms, the industry’s property & casualty ratio, an indicator of underwriting profitability, is expected to rise 1.2 points to 100.7 in 2022. The trio presented their findings during a Triple-I members-only webinar.
The difference between claims, costs paid, and premiums collected is the combined ratio.
An underwriting profit is shown by a combined ratio < 100.
A loss occurs when the ratio exceeds 100.
With a combined ratio of 99.5, the sector was only just break-even in 2021.
Losses resulted from major losses to the personal auto line.
Principal and consultant associate at Milliman, Jason B. Kurtz.
He said that the commercial multiperil line could suffer an underwriting loss for an additional year.
More rate rises are required, according to Kurtz, to counteract pressures brought on by social or economic inflation.
Social inflation describes the impact that legal expenses have on insurers’ claim settlements, loss ratios, and ultimately the cost of insurance for policyholders. Kurtz stated that the multi-year underwriting profit streak for workers’ compensation is expected to continue. However, margins will likely shrink through 2024.
The CEO of Moore Actuarial Consulting is Dave Moore.
He said that the commercial auto combination ratio is predicted to be 101.4% in 2022. Moore stated that underwriting losses are expected for 2022-2024 because of prior-year developments and the effect of inflation – both economic and social.